RestonWeb

[stix]

The DOT IG report is a preliminary report of their June 2011 and on March 15, 2012 investigations. Work will continue until the final report is issued.

You should read the paragraph you cite.. the 2012 audit is about project oversight and DTR revenue reasonableness. Not a word about Phase 2 construction cost.. but then I expect you will continue misleading the public despite what the words are...
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[Bob Bruhns]

Stix, you really should look at the bottom of page 1 of the March 15, 2012 announcement.
Full PDF Document announcing audit initiation on March 15, 2012

[stix]

One of us lacks reading comprehension.. time will tell which it is. So far the DOT IG preliminary report (15 May2012) not mentioning even one sintilla of progress on the question of Phase 2 construction cost favors my reading, namely that they are not doing a cost audit on the $2.8 billion MWAA estimate.

That leaves you free to continue to deceive the public in my view.. and/or to make excuses for MWAA not even mentioning such an audit as you are doing...
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[Bob Bruhns]

Well stix, it may have something to do with the part where it says "key project risk areas, including cost" - it seems clear enough to me, but you seem to be taking the position that fact is of no concern when large sums of money are in hand. I admit that history does indicate that you may be right about that.

Keep in mind the time scale of these audits - eleven months, and we are getting the preliminary report from the audit initiated on June 21, 2011. Doesn't it stand to reason that the results from another audit initiated on March 15, 2012 might not reveal the level of detail after two months, that the earlier audit does after eleven months? But again, no doubt you are taking the position that facts are of no concern, when large sums of money are in hand.

We'll see.
_________________
Government debt and deficits are robbing your children, your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[stix]

[Bob Bruhns]

The arguments FOR this rail line, especially Phase II of it, are so flimsy that I wonder why they get any attention at all - yet the media pumps them every day. It's just more proof that facts are of no concern when large sums of money are in hand.

Once in a while, somebody comes up with an almost-good answer to my points. But 99% of the time I get total nonsense. Yours is in the second category, stix.
_________________
Government debt and deficits are robbing your children, your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Bob Bruhns]

The recent revelations about the true goings on at MWAA reveal a self-serving, disfunctional organization that should not be in charge of any projects more critical than folding laundry.

Today I discovered that the document in MWAA's "Phase II updates" page is more than a year out of date.

http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/Phase2UpdateInformationPacket-PDF-updated.pdf

It is linked under "Download our Phase 2 information packet »" on this page:

http://www.dullesmetro.com/phase_2_updates/index.cfm

The plan described in that update was itself changed over a year ago, as noted in this press release:

http://www.mwaa.com/3785.htm

OK, people: I would say that we have found a disoriented operator wandering around a train wreck. Shall we take the control keys away from this individual and call for medical attention, or what?
_________________
Government debt and deficits are robbing your children, your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Bob Bruhns]

The focus on PLA-preference cost, and on the distribution of cost to various payers, makes me wonder why there is no focus on the costs themselves. Can no agency, organization or individual other than myself even begin to compare the prices we saw in the FTA White Paper of July 3, 2011 with the actual prices for similar items on Planet Earth? I know it might be necessary to actually, you know, do a few GOOGLE searches - but the information is out there.

Especially in view of the recently revealed preference of MWAA for non-bid contracts, why is excessive line item pricing of very big-ticket items in this job - and of the overall cost of this job compared to inflation-adjusted prices of comparable jobs in the not so distant past - being so thoroughly ignored, especially when the hugely excessive prices of this job are the root of so much financing difficulty? Are our leaders and media interfering with any such consideration or review, on behalf of people who will be collecting bloated payments of public funds?

I think many will agree that I've been a highly annoying gadfly on this issue - so, why hasn't any official spokesperson even pooh-poohed what I have said, and why hasn't somebody other than a few pen-name posters even told me that I'm wrong, and that I should shut up? I assert that all attention has been directed to the PLA and the Toll Road tolls, because they are being used as diversions to get people to miss the underlying theft.
_________________
Government debt and deficits are robbing your children, your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Bob Bruhns]

[stix]

[Bob Bruhns]

[stix]

Fair enough BobB.. so here are some questions about your 2X analysis and assertion,

Where is your cost analysis of Phase 1 to Phase 2, the most current and identical rail program in the region? If they are not comparable, why not?

Why is it a valid cost comparison for commuter rail projects to consider only cost/mile? Were all of the design and cost elements of the Franconia-Springfield extension effort identical to Dulles Phase 1 or 2? For example was there a cost element associated with the purchase of new rail stock? Furthermore were elements such as site development, utility relocation, traction power supplies, station finishes, MEP and safety/security comparable?

What inflation factor(s) did you assume? If only the CPI, does that adequately cover all of the labor and material cost elements since 1997? (The same question applies to your garage analysis which relied on garage construction costs of an unknown period before the vtpi report you linked.)

And finally on a slightly different subject, how does the public know the poster Bob Bruhns has any more "creditability" in these matters than any other poster, real or pen-name? Is not your underlying assumption highly unrealistic that all real name posters are creditable and pen-name posters not?
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[Bob Bruhns]

OK, this is something I can research for you, stix. But:

1) When I can prove at that elevated level that the costs are artificially bloated, will you admit that the elevated pricing is wrong, and demand price control before approving this project? Or will you only demand endless further proofs of me? And if I can show that Phase I was overpriced, will that count?

2) Are you questioning, for example, Dr. Fuller's undocumented basis for his rosy with-Metrorail economic forecast, or only my admittedly amateur analysis of the overcharges for the line items of the Phase II job? I believe you display an analytical bias, since I'm sure that the answer is the latter.

3) Aren't you really just saying "Uh, best two out of three" after failing in your earlier critique?

As for comparison with Phase I:

When it is convenient, Partnership spokespeople claim that they have cost figures for Dulles Rail Phase I that show that Phase II station costs are equivalent - but when asked for them, they say that the costs can not be broken out. I suppose we can break out the cost per mile. About the same number of miles, but notably higher cost for Phase II, despite the big elevated track and the 1/2 mile tunnel in Phase I.

As for cost compared to Phase I, I'm not even sure there was bidding on Phase I.

I do not buy the claims that real inflation is higher on rail construction, because I see the costs being ratcheted up in no-pushback government fashion, and then they are pointed to as the going cost, which is then further ratcheted up in no-pushback government fashion, etc. I assert that the resulting accelerated inflation is false; it is not free-market pricing, it is hand in glove relationships between governments and government-sponsored agencies, and generous donors, that are behind the price increases.

As for power facilities and rolling stock for the Franconia-Springfield extension, I will likely be able to locate transformers in Google map views. Will that be good enough, or will I also have to produce the invoices for purchase and installation? Also, do you expect that a transformer yard and a few rail cars might cost in the hundreds of millions of 1997 dollars? I think we are buying 64 cars for Dulles Rail, at about $3 million each or less in 2012 dollars - if we got WMATA's overcharge division under control. At the very most possible, that might add up to $200 million 2012 dollars - but certainly not a Billion and a half, stix.

As for inflation: this will be contentious, since I assert that the increase in government-job costs in recent years is falsely bloated by non-pushback from careless, if not complicit government and official agences. My assumption was 1.7:1 inflation 1997-2012, but I even looked at 2:1 inflation that was suggested by a pro-rail shill. Are you proposing an even higher rate of inflation?

I think you need to take a look at the questions you are asking me, and see if you really think they would add up to nearly the kind of bloat that exists in the Dulles Rail Phase II job, stix. And would you identify yourself - so that people will know and remember who was making such a claim? Or is it safer to hide behind a pen name?
_________________
Government debt and deficits are robbing your children, your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Bob Bruhns]

A KPMG Audit of Dulles Rail Phase I was released on April 17, 2012.

It can be found here:
http://www.loudoun.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/68744

It can also be found at:
http://www.loudoun.gov/index.aspx?NID=2100
(go there and click on '05-11-12 KPMG Audit on Phase 1 of Dulles Rail Released')

Apparently it appeared on the Loudoun.gov website on May 11, 2012.

It can also be found here:
http://www.metwashairports.com/file/MWAA_KPMG_Phase1_Audit.pdf

The above link is on this page:
http://www.metwashairports.com/dulles/4884.htm
_________________
Government debt and deficits are robbing your children, your grandchildren, and your great-grandchildren. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[stix]